Chasing Sunrises

This August 2011 interview from the Sky Business program Switzer, focuses on methods for anticipating future social change.

In particular, Steve focuses on the s-curve cycle of change - Embryonic Trends, Emerging Trends, and Established Trends - before highlighting how another method, the pendulum theory of change can be used to anticipate embryonic issues that are likely to emerge in the future.

According to the pendulum theory, whenever we gain something, we lose something else. Over time what we lose becomes scarce and increasingly valued, causing a re-perception in our attitudes, and ultimately driving a shift in social behaviour.

Applying this theory, Steve feels that the switch from our current time-saving focus to a time-savouring culture will have vast implications for industries in the future.

Presented at TEDxDarwin in August 2011, Steve’s speech explains how the emergence of Post Materialistic values will drive a fundamental shift in how we perceive consumption, time, status and success.

These re-perceptions, assisted by the trio of trends - Resource Awareness, Decline of Want, and Lifestyle Dissonance - will have a vast impact on Australian society in the future.

This new paradigm stands to be the greatest driver of social change in Australia over the coming decades.

Buy Nothing New urges people to kick the consumption habit and buy second-hand, barter or to swap all goods, except necessities, during October.

If the move from paradigm ignorance to paradigm awareness is an essential step for social change, how might this campaign impact the future of consumption?

Steve concludes the interview by outlining some of the key implications from a foresight perspective.

In this episode of ‘Interviews from the Fringe’, Steve interviews Laurie Levy, the Campaign Director for the Coalition against Duck Shooting.

Laurie began campaigning in the 1980’s when the majority of the public supported duck shooting. Today, largely due to Laurie’s efforts, the public’s perceptions about duck shooting have completely changed.

Laurie’s story provides a great insight into detecting paradigm blindness, raising public awareness, and effective techniques for changing public perceptions.

Steve concludes the interview by outlining the key implications and opportunities from a foresight perspective.

This episode of ‘Interviews from the Fringe’ features Fiona Healy, CEO and Founder of Feb Fast, the campaign that encourages people to take a pause from drinking alcohol each February.

In Australia, where alcohol is such an ingrained part of social behaviour, most of us partake in ‘drinking without thinking’.

Febfast has the potential to shape future social behaviour by moving the public from its position of paradigm blindness to paradigm awareness - the launching pad for a future paradigm shift.

Steve concludes the interview by outlining the potential of Febfast to disrupt existing social behaviour in the future.